This post may contain science..
I've been reading up on Elderberry tincture and Sambucol in the medical journals and have found the following:
1) There is a randomized controlled clinical trial on the effects against type A influenza showing efficacy from 2004. The study was performed according to "the principles" and thus is good science. However the endpoints of the study, i.e. what you measure were purely subjectice with people rating symptoms on a visual analog scale. The study was performed across four treatment centres and the enrollment criteria where decent ( temperature over 38 celcius and 1 or more respiratory symptoms).
This means that what we learn from this study is that people feel better when they take sambucol after experiencing flu symptoms if they have one of the types of flu present in the areas at that time. This is important because the new Type A H1N1 is acting a little differently (more on this later). If you want to read this study it's available free if you google around or ask me, it's a pdf and takes up 70 kb.
2) A review of Sambucol effects and studies conclude that the evidence is moderate for the efficacy of Sambucol. This is because there's only the one randomized study. The rest are animal tests and/or "in vitro" expermentation, which have been promising (i.e. Sambucol has been shown to inhibit the growth and in some cases terminate viruscolonies under lab-conditions.) This study is not available free unless you have database access; it is published ahead of print in a journal called phytotherapy research via wiley interscience.
3) Theres a new randomized clinical trial that's scheduled for completion in September. It's based in Israel and, my guess is it will be delayed so that they have a chance to single out those that have the new Type A H1N1.
In conclusion: There's some evidence that Sambucol is effective even when measured against the same criteria as traditional pharmacological remedies. However there's no publication that has tested it against the new flu and with good reason. The problem here, as many of you have identified, is the cytokine storm. This can best be likened to when people enter into septic shock. In septic shock it's also the body's immune response to infection that causes many of the problems. For instance there's a molecular link between the immune system and the coagulation system via a protein called Protein C, where activation may lead to widespread thrombosis and subsequent bleeding. The response in the new flu seems centred around the respiratory system, where the effects of the cytokines increase vascular and cellular permeabilty and a lot of fluid goes where it shouldn't be.
About the molecular effects of elderberry: This is guesswork but if you make a few assumptions( i know, i know) you get the following: I't increases the immunesystem's early response, i.e. before infection is widespread enough to cause the cytokine storm. This is by enhacing local concentrations of cytokines. Other than that antioxidant effects might inhibit viral replication in the cells. Attention..this last paragraph is entirely guesswork on my part.
Am I taking this instead of Tamiflu..If need be, then yes. Am I getting the vaccine... I'll wait and see how the virus changes as the flu season approaches. I'll rather take further preventative precautions until there's more clinical data. You'll all have to make these calls for yourselves.
regards
/eir


